The vote is hard to predict before the final count is in, however, some media sources share polls that try to give a hint about what people may expect on 18 May.

According to Sondagem das Sondagens, by Rádio Renascença, the results of all the polls that have been carried out are combined, trying to give a closer result to a possible reality. On 12 May, the polls indicated that Aliança Democrática (AD) is predicted to win the elections with 32.3 percent of the votes, more than 2.8 percent than the 2024 results. If this result comes to pass, Luís Montenegro would be prime minister again.

The same poll gives Partido Socialista (PS) the second place, with 26.6 percent of votes, a place that the party led by Pedro Nuno Santos has never left since the publishing of Sondagem das Sondagens. The poll reveals that the vote intention in the PS has decreased since the results of 2024 (28.7 percent). CHEGA! (CH) remains the third political force with 17.4 percent of the vote intention, less than the election’s result in 2024 (18.1 percent). The far-right wing party is followed by another right-wing party, Iniciativa Liberal (IL), which keeps its fourth place in the poll with 6.1 per cent of the votes. If that happens, IL will have one percent more votes than in the last election.

Smaller parties

The smaller parties, with representation in the Parliament, mainly the left wing, are watching their results decrease, except for Livre. Considering Sondagem das Sondagens, Livre may have 3.9 percent of the votes, more than 0.3 percent, when compared to the elections’ results in 2024. Bloco de Esquerda (BE) is the left-wing party that sees the greatest decrease in vote percentage. In 2024, BE got 4.4 percent of the votes, while this year the polls point out that the party may have 2.8 percent of the votes. Coligação Democrática Unitária (CDU), a coalition between the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and Os Verdes (PEV), has also shown a decrease in vote intentions. If in 2024 the party reached 3.3 percent of the votes, the polls reflect that the CDU may have 2.8 percent of the votes. A decrease is also seen in Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (PAN), being predicted to reach 1.3 percent of the votes.

It is important to note that the vote percentage is based on Sondagem das Sondagens, by Rádio Renascença, and the election results may vary, as these results were based on opinions shared before the elections.

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Author

Deeply in love with music and with a guilty pleasure in criminal cases, Bruno G. Santos decided to study Journalism and Communication, hoping to combine both passions into writing. The journalist is also a passionate traveller who likes to write about other cultures and discover the various hidden gems from Portugal and the world. Press card: 8463. 

Bruno G. Santos