According to the special New Year's forecast released by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA), in the last days of 2025, the weather will be influenced by an anticyclone south of Iceland, predicting a "very weak easterly current and the transport of polar air masses over the mainland territory".
IPMA predicts a drop in minimum temperatures and maintenance of maximum temperatures during New Year's Eve. On Monday, the minimum temperature is expected to drop between 2°C and 4°C, with a slight, more localized, gradual decrease predicted until the 1st in the North and Central regions, where values should vary between -3°C and 1°C.
For the coast, minimum temperatures are expected to be between 4°C and 7°C.
Despite the polar air mass, maximum temperatures are not expected to change significantly, except in regions with persistent fog and low cloud cover (northeast Trás-os-Montes and Beira Alta, until Wednesday).
In the rest of the territory, maximum temperatures should vary between 11°C and 15°C, and may reach 17°C in the Algarve, particularly along the coast.
“On the 1st, with the gradual increase in cloud cover from south to north, starting in the afternoon, a slight drop in maximum temperatures is likely in the Central and Southern regions,” adds IPMA.
Madeira
In the Madeira archipelago, where periods of rain are expected, particularly on the island of Madeira, during the New Year period, 2026 begins with sometimes heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms, especially on the southern slopes and in the highlands of Madeira Island, with occasional hail.
On the 30th, the temperature should rise between 2°C and 4°C, but will fall slightly on December 31st and January 1st.
Minimum temperatures should vary between 8°C and 14°C, with warmer temperatures near the south coast (between 15°C and 17°C) and lower temperatures in the highlands (between 4°C and 7°C), while maximum temperatures will be between 14°C and 18°C, possibly reaching 21°C on the south coast of Madeira Island, but without exceeding 13°C in the highlands.











