The latest estimate comes from the CIP-ISEG Economic Barometer, which points to steady growth driven by resilient domestic demand, a robust labour market and continued activity in sectors including tourism, exports and services.

If confirmed by official figures, the quarterly increase would underline Portugal’s ability to maintain economic momentum despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, high interest rates and weaker growth across parts of Europe.

Economy continues to outperform

The Portuguese economy has proved more resilient than many analysts anticipated over the past two years, supported by strong consumer spending, record tourism revenues and sustained foreign investment.

According to the Confederation of Portuguese Business (CIP) and the Lisbon School of Economics and Management (ISEG), economic activity has remained broadly positive even as international trade and manufacturing have slowed in several European economies.

The forecast suggests Portugal continues to benefit from a diversified economy, with services remaining a major driver of growth while construction and technology investment also contribute to overall performance.

Global uncertainty remains

Despite the encouraging outlook, economists warn that challenges remain.

Rising geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding international trade and the prospect of slower growth among Portugal’s main European trading partners could weigh on economic performance during the second half of the year.

Higher borrowing costs also continue to affect businesses and households, although inflation has eased considerably compared with the peaks experienced in recent years.

Tourism continues to support growth

Tourism remains one of Portugal’s strongest economic pillars, with visitor numbers and spending continuing to perform well across much of the country.

The sector has helped support employment while generating significant export revenue, particularly in regions such as the Algarve, Lisbon and Madeira.

Combined with continued investment in renewable energy, technology and infrastructure, economists believe these factors have helped Portugal weather a period of heightened global economic volatility better than many expected.

Official GDP figures for the second quarter are expected to be published by Statistics Portugal (INE) in the coming weeks.