The document, which Lusa had access to, warns that it can be stated, “with a high degree of certainty, that the North region will be the most affected,” something explained “by the concentration of a significant part of the activities most impacted by the increase in tariffs from the United States of America - USA (with the exception of petroleum and related products),” therefore requesting a “special focus” in the Government's actions.

A study by the Faculty of Economics at the University of Porto warns that, in the analyzed scenario, the Northern region will concentrate “more than 36% of the negative impact on production (above 300 million euros), more than 45% in terms of GVA [Gross Value Added] (above 120 million euros), almost half in terms of wages (more than 50 million euros) and well over half (almost 55%) in terms of employment (a loss of almost 3,300 jobs)”.

The research, "Geopolitical Changes and Trade War – Scenarios, Impacts and Policy Recommendations," will be presented on Monday at 3:00 PM at the Palácio da Bolsa and arose in response to “the challenge launched by the Porto Commercial Association – Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACP-CCI) to analyse the possible impacts of the trade war triggered by the Trump administration's tariff decisions”.

The document warns that the Government's actions "should take into account the asymmetrical regional impacts, with the Northern region receiving special attention, as it is the most negatively affected in all the economic variables analysed."

According to the president of the ACP (Portuguese Association of Automobile Clubs), Nuno Botelho, the study “confirms, based on rigorous scientific evidence, what many companies are already beginning to feel on the ground, namely that the growing instability of international trade has asymmetrical effects and particularly penalizes regions with a strong industrial and export base, such as the North of the country”.

In statements to Lusa (Portuguese news agency), he stressed that “anticipating these impacts is essential so that companies and policymakers can react promptly and with effective measures”.

The document recommends that, “in the short term, the Government should pay particular attention to the sectors most exposed to the increase in US tariffs and the possible European economic slowdown”.

These should “be the subject of selective public support, based on a rigorous diagnosis and business consultation, aiming to avoid drops in demand, production and employment and to increase the efficiency of the affected exporting companies”.

Companies should, the document says, seek “market diversification.”

“The initiation, integration, or development of strategic alliances constitutes one of the most promising paths, generally making it important to explore the additional potential of belonging to the European Single Market and the special relationships with African and Latin American countries,” it notes.

“These actions would make sense even without changes to US tariff policy, given that the geographical concentration of Portuguese exports is clearly excessive,” they argue.

On the other hand, “structural adaptation of companies should be encouraged to clearly reduce competitiveness gaps.”

According to the document, “incentives for innovation, differentiation, technological modernisation and digitalisation should be particularly relevant; possible tax changes (elimination of the state surcharge or reduction of corporate income tax) and the strengthening of logistics infrastructure (investment in ports), along with support for small and medium-sized enterprises (with the development of specific programs).”

It will also be “important” to have “an adequate response at the level of public policies, with Portugal's reaction primarily following efforts at the European level.”