The Transatlantic Economy 2026

Following a year of political and trade tensions between Europe and the United States, commercial ties between the two sides, the deepest and broadest between any two regions in history , have held remarkably strong.

In a new study of “The Transatlantic Economy” (1) value the transatlantic economy at a record $9.8 trillion in 2025, up from $9.5 trillion the previous year. This figure comprises an estimated record $2.3 trillion in goods and services trade between Europe and the United States and $7.5 trillion in combined affiliate sales.

In 2025, the year the US significantly increased tariffs on most goods imported from Europe, total trade in goods between Europe and the US increased to $1.46 trillion, up 12% from $1.3 trillion the previous year.

The US trade in goods deficit with the EU fell to $219 billion, down 7% from 2024 ($236 billion).

EU–US services trade also posted gains. The report estimates that in 2025 the US exported $325 billion in services to the EU and imported $256 billion.

When services trade is added to the trade balance picture, the overall US trade deficit with the EU amounted to an estimated $150 billion,more than four times smaller than the US trade deficit with the Asia-Pacific region ($653 billion) and 1.4 times smaller than the US trade deficit with its USMCA partners, Canada and Mexico.

Combined, EU–US trade in goods and services hit an estimated record of $1.63 trillion in 2025.

Despite trade’s prominence in the news agenda, the report finds that investment remains the real driver of transatlantic commerce.

Sales through affiliates remained the primary way US companies served European customers, and European companies served US customers.

US companies sold four times more to European customers through affiliate sales ($3.9 trillion) than they did through exports. Likewise, European companies sold three times more to US customers through affiliate sales ($3.5 trillion) than they did through exports.

European and American affiliates remain important economic forces in each other’s economies.

According to the report, American affiliates in Europe generated $835 billion in economic output in 2024, supporting 4.6 million jobs. Meanwhile, European affiliates generated $900 billion in economic output, supporting 5.3 million jobs.

As some political voices increasingly question the importance and value of transatlantic integration, the report confirms that the two sides remained each other’s largest foreign investors.

1. The Transatlantic Economy 2026 is an annual study providing the latest insights on jobs, trade and investment between Europe and the United States. The report is supported by AmCham EU and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and authored by Daniel Hamilton, Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, and Joseph P. Quinlan, Senior Fellow at the Transatlantic Leadership Network. ”

“The United States has become the 3rd largest foreign direct investment (FDI) holder in Portugal, surpassing China and the UK. Investment has surged over 149% in seven years, reaching around €17 billion!”