According to the spring economic forecasts, Brussels predicts a deficit of 0.1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026 and 0.4% of GDP in 2027, assuming the maintenance of policies, while the government projects a zero fiscal balance this year.

In 2026, the projected decline reflects the impact of government support measures taken in response to the series of storms in January and February, the EU executive explains.

In addition, the reduction in the balance in 2026 and 2027 "also results from measures that deteriorated the balance, such as the reduction in income tax rates for individuals and legal entities".

"The fiscal outlook faces risks related to the financial fragility of state-owned enterprises and contingencies from public-private partnership liabilities," warns the European Commission.

Regarding public debt, the downward trajectory is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace. The forecast is that the ratio of Brazilian public debt will reach 87.6% of GDP in 2026 and 86% in 2027, due to the persistence of primary surpluses and favourable differentials between growth and interest rates.