The study, conducted by the Joint Research Centre, confirms that the European Union (EU) population is currently near its peak at 450.6 million people; it is expected to stand at around 445 million by 2050 and 398.8 million by 2100, representing an overall decrease of approximately 11.7%, bringing it to a level similar to that recorded in the 1970s.

The report states that between 1960 and 2025, the EU population increased by about 96 million (from 354.5 million to 450.6 million).

Between 2005 and 2024, the pace of population growth slowed to 0.89 million per year, compared with 3.03 million per year in the 1960s, and is expected to begin declining after peaking at 453.3 million in 2029.

At the same time, Europeans are living longer than ever, with life expectancy at birth reaching 81.5 years in 2024, reflecting progress in healthcare, living standards, and social conditions.

By 2050, nearly one in three EU residents will be aged 65 or older, compared to one in five today, while life expectancy could exceed 90 years for women and 86 for men by 2100.

A child born in the EU in 2023 can expect to live a life free from serious illness until the age of 75.3, the demographic study indicates.

The study further indicates that the annual number of births in the EU has fallen by nearly half over the past 60 years, following a fertility peak of 6.8 million live births in 1964.

In 2024, only 3.55 million children were born in the EU, the lowest figure in the recorded data presented.

The Joint Research Centre anticipates that demographic changes will affect health, projecting that by 2038, the number of inhabitants aged 65 and over will exceed that of those aged 20 to 40.

This will also impact the labour market, specifically by easing access for young people, as well as social security (particularly the sustainability of pension systems), education, and housing.