The IPMA has updated the well-known phenomenon of warming waters in the equatorial Pacific, which causes climate changes around the world.

The institute cites the Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (CPC/NOAA) in the United States, which reports that the temperature indicator is already in the "El Niño" phase and that temperatures are 1.2ºC above normal.

The so-called ENSO index is an indicator of the state of the ocean-atmosphere interaction.

With it, you can identify whether the world is facing an “El Niño” if sea surface temperatures are above normal, facing a “La Niña” if they are below normal, or in a neutral phase when temperatures are at normal values.

In the statement, IPMA says that forecasts from various models indicate that over the next few weeks, there is a greater than 99% probability of a persistent “El Niño” episode through the beginning of 2027.

They also point to a probability of more than 80% that a very strong “El Niño” will occur.

IPMA reaffirms that although the phenomenon occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it can significantly influence global climate patterns.

The effects of the “El Niño” phenomenon in Portugal are neither direct nor statistically significant, but IPMA will continue to monitor the evolution of the situation and release updates whenever necessary.

The World Meteorological Organisation, which corroborates the information from the CPC/NOAA, warns that, given the intensity of the phenomenon, there is an increased risk of extreme weather events, especially in the tropical and equatorial regions.