IPMA has issued an orange warning, the second-most serious level in a three-tier system, for the districts of Évora, Santarém, and Castelo Branco, effective from midnight to 9 am on 10 November, due to persistent, and at times heavy, rain.

Additionally, southwesterly winds with gusts reaching 100 to 120 kilometres per hour (km/h) have prompted the IPMA to issue an orange warning for the districts of Faro, Setúbal, Santarém, Lisboa, Leiria, and Beja, in effect from 12 pm to 9 pm on 11 November.

Yellow warnings (the least severe level) have also been issued for thunderstorms in the districts of Viseu, Porto, Guarda, Vila Real, Setúbal, Santarém, Viana do Castelo, Lisboa, Leiria, Castelo Branco, Aveiro, Coimbra, and Braga, until 3 pm on 10 November.

The districts of Porto, Faro, Setúbal, Viana do Castelo, Lisboa, Leiria, Beja, Aveiro, Coimbra, and Braga will also be under a yellow warning for rough sea conditions until 6 am on 11 November.

Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate in Madeira and on the Portuguese mainland over the coming days due to the arrival of a new low-pressure system, named “Charles.” According to the IPMA, “the Madeira archipelago will experience a deterioration in weather conditions between late tomorrow [Tuesday], the 10th, and the morning of the 11th,” with forecasts of “persistent and at times heavy rain, potentially accumulating over 100 mm in 12 hours in some locations, especially in mountainous regions.”

Wind speeds are also expected to increase, with gusts ranging from 80 to 100 kilometres per hour (km/h)—potentially reaching around 130 km/h in the highlands—while sea conditions are likewise expected to worsen during this period, with southwesterly waves of 3.5 to 4.5 metres along the southern coast of Madeira Island.

Depression Charles is expected to move toward mainland Portugal, with “a high degree of uncertainty regarding its path and intensity.” Weather conditions are forecast to deteriorate from late morning on 11 November, “though the specific regions most affected will depend on the storm’s actual trajectory.”

“Given this situation, orange-level weather warnings will be issued. The possibility of these being upgraded for certain regions following future updates to numerical weather prediction models cannot be ruled out; therefore, it is advised to stay updated on the latest information,” the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) highlighted.

Based on current data, the IPMA indicates that the centre of the depression is most likely to pass somewhere between Sines (Setúbal district) and Cabo Carvoeiro (Peniche municipality, Leiria district).

Winds will initially blow from the south, later shifting to the north. Along the southern edge of the depression, gusts are expected to reach 100 to 120 km/h, with the potential for even higher speeds in localised areas.

Precipitation will be heavy at times across much of the country. Additionally, southwesterly waves reaching four to six metres in height are forecast south of Cabo Carvoeiro, beginning Wednesday afternoon.

The Azores archipelago will not be affected by Depression Charles.

Depression Bruna, centred north of the Azores, is currently influencing weather conditions in mainland Portugal. A series of frontal waves is expected to pass through at least until Friday, 13 November

Depression Bruna will remain nearly stationary northwest of the Iberian Peninsula until that date and is independent of Depression Charles.

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