Economic factors remain key, but they have ceased to explain, on their own, the main risks faced by organisations. An international conflict, a trade war, a cyberattack, a disruption in supply chains or a regulatory change can have as significant an impact on a company's activity as any macroeconomic indicator. This transformation is evident in the findings of PwC's latest barometer on managers' expectations for 2026, which shows competitiveness, regulatory complexity, geopolitical instability, cybersecurity and technological transformation at the centre of business leaders' concerns. Interestingly, this change takes place in a context in which most companies continue to anticipate growth and new investments, demonstrating that the challenge is no longer just economic and has become strategic.

The last few years explain this change. The pandemic has revealed the fragility of global supply chains. The war in Ukraine has put energy security at the heart of business decisions. Trade tensions between the world's major economies have introduced new uncertainties in international investment. At the same time, the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence has created unprecedented opportunities, but also new challenges related to security, governance and regulation. Geopolitics is no longer a distant topic: it has definitively entered the management of companies.

Technology has also profoundly changed the concept of risk. As organisations become more digital, the demands on cybersecurity, data protection, and business continuity are increasing. The challenge is no longer just to adopt new technologies, but to ensure that they are implemented in a safe and resilient way. In this context, competitiveness takes on a new meaning: it no longer depends solely on operational efficiency or the ability to reduce costs, but increasingly on the speed of adaptation, diversification of markets, the ability to manage talent and preparedness to respond to an ever-changing international environment.

Portugal is not immune to this transformation. As an open economy, integrated into global value chains and increasingly attractive for international investment, it benefits from the opportunities of globalisation, but is also more exposed to its vulnerabilities. For many years, it was said that companies had to learn to live with economic cycles. Today, the challenge is more demanding: cycles continue to exist, but coexist with permanent risks that cross borders, sectors and technologies.

The economy will always remain a decisive factor for business success. But the biggest risk for many companies no longer comes from economics: it comes from the increasing unpredictability of the world in which they operate.