The highlight is the Renewables 2025 report, in which the agency indicates that renewable capacity will more than double by 2030—a growth that is "shaken" by political changes in the United States and falls short of the target set at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP).

Among the countries with the largest share of electricity generation from renewable energy, five are already practically at 100%: Costa Rica, Nepal, Ethiopia, Iceland, and Norway. In most of these cases, hydropower is the major "driver." "In the next five years, countries like Portugal and Chile are expected to reach 90% renewables in their electricity mix," with "variable" renewables contributing more than half, a group that includes solar and wind energy, technologies that are more unpredictable in terms of generation.

Among the 100 countries analysed, Portugal ranks fifth in terms of the percentage of "variable" renewables, at around 65%. It is ahead of Germany, Ireland, Denmark, and finally Lithuania, which takes first place, reaching 80%. The average share of "variable" energy is 15%, but it is expected to rise to 24% by 2030, with around 14 countries showing shares exceeding 50%. More than half of the countries will see double-digit increases.

In Portugal's case, equivalent to Spain and Greece, solar photovoltaic energy should contribute to generating "at least a third" of electricity by 2030. Luxembourg is expected to lead in solar penetration, exceeding 40%, and Germany is preparing to double generation through these panels. Despite the importance of solar energy in Portugal, expectations were revised downward compared to last year's report regarding unsubsidized projects, given the weakening of projects in the pipeline, the absence of auctions, and lower market prices, the agency notes.

Portugal also deserves mention, along with Germany, for being the first two countries in Europe to implement renewable energy auctions coupled with storage in 2020. "The share of 'variable' renewables in many countries increases integration challenges, requiring additional flexibility in the system," the IEA explains in the report. At the same time, the entity warns, auctions for renewable projects coupled with batteries generally lead to higher prices compared to auctions for standalone batteries.

Photovoltaic solar energy is expected to support 80% of the increase in renewable generation capacity over the next five years, a leap driven by decreasing costs and faster licensing. After solar, the energy source expected to expand the most is wind, followed by hydroelectric power, bioenergy, and geothermal. In the case of hydroelectric power, given the challenges of accessing the grid, the focus will be on pumped storage systems (which allow energy to be generated by reusing water), which are expected to increase by 80% by the end of the decade.