Inflation accelerated from 2.2% in 2025 to 2.7% in March 2026 due to a sharp rise in international energy prices, notes the Commission, although this was mainly limited to fuel prices, "while wholesale electricity prices remained comparatively low in Portugal, benefiting from high water reserves and the high share of renewable energy in national energy production".

Overall inflation, measured by the harmonised price index, which allows comparisons between countries, is expected to "peak in the second quarter of 2026 and gradually decline thereafter, as the sharp increase in energy prices is expected to have only a moderate and lagged effect on energy-intensive goods and services," the European Commission considers.

Forecasts indicate inflation of 3% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, while core inflation, which excludes energy and food, is expected to grow at a slower pace, to 2.4% in both 2026 and 2027.