The revised figures reflect a significantly higher level of immigration than previously understood, with the average number of arrivals reaching around 1,080 per day over the four-year period, which is equivalent to six fully occupied Airbus A320 aircraft arriving in Portugal every day.

These figures were revised after the INE introduced a new methodology in June, replacing its previous reliance on surveys with information gathered from administrative records, including data from the Tax Authority, Social Security, civil identification services, the education system and the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA).

The updated figures show that Portugal recorded 1,575,409 immigration movements between 2021 and 2024, compared with the previously reported 631,141, which represents an increase of 149.6 percent, fundamentally changing the picture of migration into the country.

Peak year

The largest correction concerns 2022, when the number of arrivals was revised from 167,098 to 495,979, almost three times as many people as earlier statistics suggested, adding 328,881 movements to the total.

This revision also shifted the peak year for immigration from 2023 to 2022.

In 2021, arrivals increased from 97,119 to 222,775, while in 2023 they rose from 189,367 to 461,751.

For 2024, the INE now records 394,904 arrivals, compared with the previous estimate of 177,557.

According to PÁGINA UM, none of the four years saw a statistical correction of less than 122 percent.

These changes are particularly significant because migration figures informed public policy during the final part of António Costa's government, despite the scale of immigration being substantially underestimated.

On 2 June, the INE announced its revised methodology, incorporating information recovered from AIMA’s backlog of outstanding cases, and rather than counting these movements in the year the information became available, the institute attributed them to the year in which individuals originally arrived in Portugal.

Non-EU arrivals

The revised figures also provide a clearer picture of who moved to Portugal during the period.

Of the 1.57 million recorded arrivals, 1,215,708 involved foreign nationals, representing 77.2 percent of the total, while the remaining 359,637 movements concerned Portuguese citizens returning to the country or moving there for the first time.

An overwhelming majority of foreign arrivals accounted for immigration outside the European Union (EU), as 1,103,287 movements between 2021 and 2024 involved citizens from non-EU countries, representing 90.8 percent of foreign immigration and around 70 percent of all recorded arrivals.

These figures refer to people’s nationality rather than necessarily the country from which they travelled.

Furthermore, age is another important aspect of the revised data, with more than half of all arrivals (810,620) involving people aged between 20 and 30, while those aged between 15 and 64 accounted for 81.8 percent of the total.

Children aged up to 14 represented 12.9 percent of arrivals, while people aged 65 and over accounted for 5.3 percent.

The concentration of younger adults was even more pronounced among foreign nationals, with a total of 690,625 foreign arrivals being people aged between 20 and 39, equivalent to 56.8 percent of foreign immigration during the four years.

Among Portuguese nationals, the same age group represented 33.4 percent of arrivals.

Increased demand

The scale and age profile of immigration provide important context for the pressure on Portugal's housing market and public services.

People arriving in the country require accommodation immediately, whereas building new homes or renovating existing properties takes considerably longer.

As a result, large numbers of working-age adults can increase demand for rental properties, shared accommodation, and family housing.

Where housing supply fails to keep pace, competition for available properties can intensify, potentially adding pressure to rents and living conditions.

Public services also need time and resources to respond to population changes, as healthcare, public transport and administrative services must adapt their capacity to accommodate additional demand.

The arrival of 203,691 children aged up to 14 during the four-year period also highlights the need for sufficient childcare facilities and school places.

However, the figures alone do not establish exactly how many additional homes were required or the precise effect immigration had on rental prices, as some newcomers share accommodation, others join existing households, while some subsequently leave Portugal.

Furthermore, the statistics count annual migration movements rather than unique individuals who necessarily remained in the country throughout the entire period.

Fewer foreign arrivals

These latest figures suggest immigration slowed considerably in 2025, when Portugal recorded 254,253 arrivals, or fewer than 700 per day.

This represents a 35.6 percent decrease compared with 2024 and a substantial reduction from the average recorded over the previous four years.

The decline was largely driven by fewer foreign nationals arriving in Portugal, with numbers falling from 304,386 in 2024 to 164,585 in 2025, down 45.9 percent.

By contrast, arrivals involving Portuguese nationals remained relatively stable at around 90,000, declining by less than 1 percent.

Despite the slowdown, the combined total for 2021 to 2025 exceeds 1.8 million immigration movements, averaging about 1,002 arrivals per day over the five years.

More emigration

The INE's methodological changes have not only transformed the understanding of immigration but also significantly altered Portugal's emigration statistics.

A separate analysis by PÁGINA UM found that 602,300 permanent departures were recorded between 2021 and 2024, compared with the previous estimate of just 123,615.

This represents an additional 478,685 departures, bringing the revised total to almost five times the previously reported figure.

The new data puts average annual permanent departures at approximately 150,575.

These statistics include residents of all nationalities who left Portugal to live abroad and should not be interpreted as representing only Portuguese citizens emigrating.

The revised figures suggest that both arrivals and departures were considerably higher than previously understood, adding another dimension to the country's changing population.

While much of the public debate surrounding migration has focused on the arrival of foreign nationals, the latest data show that the scale of departures was also substantially underestimated.

Therefore, the revised statistics raise questions about how migration trends have been measured and how effectively public policies have responded to Portugal's changing population.


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