There are certain parallels between our recent Presidential election and that of France in 2017 when an almost unknown candidate appeared out of the political wilderness which French politics had become.

Emmanuel (God is with us) Macron, with no great political experience and of no strong party affiliation, emerged from the first round with the second highest number of votes and thus confronted Marine Le Pen whose strong right wing populist party had carried the vote in northern and most of eastern France.

In the face of the disaster which it was thought would follow a victory of Le Pen, all of the other candidates (except the Communist) threw their weight behind Macron as being the better choice.

Until 2017 elections in France had been much like others in post-war Europe. The party was the essential component of political life. Like-minded people came together, decided by consensus a broad programme and then elected a single leader who set up an organisation of cronies which could be presented to the electorate as an alternative government. As membership grew, parties tended to divide into left and right factions and sub-groups but the need to appear united generally forced a cohesion.

Television and the rise of social media changed all that. It showed people with talking heads and the expression of personality and presentation became paramount. A recitation of party dogma was boring and considered unrealistic by electors who were distrustful of politicians in general and regarded them as contortionists.

In 2017 Donald Trump officially represented the Republicans but, in practice, his was a hostile takeover aided by a penetrative promotional machine. Many party members loathed him but accepted his leadership as a means to a conservative, capitalist end.

The result of the Brexit vote in 2016 crossed all party lines and was largely due to electors being led by personalities who presented a variety of disinformation to please populist ears. It has led to the break-up of both traditional parties, Conservative and Labour, and the transition to a situation reminiscent of Germany in 1933 when bickering and conflict between socialists, communists and centrists opened the door to a majority of nationalists with a programme of evil intent.

Emmanuel Macron has endured stormy times with a fortitude and skill which few of his original supporters had realized was his. He has not courted popularity and has made decisions honestly but detrimentally to his poll ratings. Internationally, he has gained the respect of both foes and friends.

Will Antonio José Seguro´s presidency emulate that of Macron? Will he replace Marcelo´s presidency of amicability with the firmness of increased authority to keep an increasingly fractious parliament in good order? Most important, will he steer Portugal through the turbulence of international waters and yet remain faithful to our EU commitments.

Seguro has the traits of honesty, fortitude and experience to lead us. May good fortune serve him well for the next five years.


An essay by Roberto Cavaleiro Tomar. 16 February 2026