A possible air link between Portugal and Hong Kong has once again gained prominence following recent contacts between Portuguese authorities and the Hong Kong Airport Authority.

In early February, there was a meeting between the Consul General of Portugal in Macau and Hong Kong, Alexandre Leitão, and the Executive Director of the Hong Kong Airport Authority (AAHK), Vivian Cheung Kar-fay.

"[The meeting in Hong Kong was an] opportunity to address matters of mutual interest," the Consulate said at the time.

Establishing contacts

In a written response to questions from the Lusa news agency, the AAHK said it has been seeking to "establish contacts with airlines and business partners in the global sector, including government authorities and airport operators."

According to Erik Young, a Hong Kong-based aviation expert, a carrier like TAP would have to look “beyond the simple interests of passengers” and analyse several “critical pillars.”

The consultant highlighted that “it would be necessary to assess the balance between high-yield business travel, tourism, and, crucial for this type of long-haul route,” cargo capacity in the hold.

“A flight like this doesn’t just serve Hong Kong; its success depends on the catchment area of ​​the Greater Bay Area and the efficiency with which the Lisbon hub can connect passengers to secondary markets in Brazil and Africa,” the aviation expert pointed out.

Economic terms

In economic terms, he stressed that one should observe “trends in foreign direct investment, trade volumes between Greater China and Portuguese-speaking markets,” and the relative competitiveness of TAP’s fleet compared to carriers offering connections with a stopover.

Young also pointed out that for long-haul routes with high entry costs, “some kind of initial support or a robust Air Services Agreement” is often the deciding factor in mitigating risks. "Ultimately, it's not a yes or no question. This is an in-depth feasibility study, not a quick observation. The commercial case requires a very specific alignment of these points," he concluded.

Cyclical suggestion

The Secretary-General of the Portuguese-Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCILC), Bernardo Mendia, told Lusa that the possibility of a direct air link between Portugal and Hong Kong or Macau “cyclically arises in the public debate due to the growing historical and economic interest between Portugal and southern China.

“From a technical point of view, today this link seems to be possible,” said Mendia, recalling that the distance between Lisbon and Hong Kong is about 11,000 kilometres and that modern long-haul aircraft, such as the TAP Air Portugal Airbus A330-900neo, have sufficient range to make the flight non-stop.

However, the official stressed that “the central issue is not technological, but above all economic” because “intercontinental routes require a consistent critical mass of passengers and cargo to be sustainable.”

Indirect links

Currently, the market between Portugal and southern China is served indirectly through major European and Middle Eastern hubs.

“There are more than 300 weekly flights between the Greater Bay Area region.” Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macau and Lisbon, with connecting flights via airports such as Paris, Frankfurt, Istanbul, or Dubai. This demonstrates that there is demand, but it is still distributed across these large connecting hubs,” he added.

Despite this, Mendia considers the strategic potential significant, noting that the Greater Bay Area, which includes Hong Kong, Macau, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, has more than 70 million inhabitants and is one of the largest economic centres in the world.

Valuing the Portuguese-speaking world

The Portuguese-speaking world brings together around 260 million people, which creates a very relevant potential axis between Asia and Portuguese-speaking countries, he warns, in which “Portugal can play a natural role as a connecting platform.”

In this context, a direct link could benefit not only from traffic between Portugal and southern China but also from broader flows between Asia and Portuguese-speaking markets. “Lisbon can take advantage of its geographical position and the Atlantic network of TAP Air Portugal,” he said.

The Secretary-General of the CCILC also pointed to a “particularly interesting” scenario of any eventual involvement of a Chinese airline in the TAP privatisation process.

“In that case, "This could open up the possibility of positioning Lisbon as a true hub connecting Europe, Asia, and the Portuguese-speaking world," he said.

"Instead of Portuguese passengers having to travel to major European capitals to fly to Asia, the reverse could happen

"European airlines could start using Lisbon as a gateway for direct flights to Asia, with all the associated benefits for Portugal,” he added.

If this comes to pass, Mendia concluded, “Lisbon could establish itself as a natural meeting point between three major economic areas: Europe, the Greater Bay Area of ​​southern China, and the Portuguese-speaking world.”