According to a report from consultancy Data Appeal Mabrian, presented at the Seasonality Summit 2026 in Rimini, Italy, the national market registers a peak-season dependence of 54.5%.

This figure positions Portugal well below the regional average of 59.1%, highlighting the success of national strategies in attracting visitors beyond the summer season. Only Spain performs better in the region, leading the push against seasonality with a dependence rate of 52.8%.

The study, tracking demand trends across Italy, Spain, Greece, Croatia, and Portugal, reveals marked disparities in the region. While Italy follows the Iberian countries with a slightly lower-than-average dependence, destinations like Greece (72.9%) and Croatia (79.1%) remain heavily reliant on summer sun and beach tourism, though Greece is beginning to expand activity into shoulder seasons.

The analysis also shows that traveller profiles shift considerably during the off-season: early in the year, primarily couples from nearby markets choose mid-range accommodations; in the last quarter, tourists from established European markets seek to extend the summer and favour high-end hotels.

Despite positive evaluations of flight flows, the report issues a specific warning for Portugal’s air connectivity at the end of 2026.

Unlike its Southern European rivals—expected to see average growth of 4.6% in commercial flight seats between October and December—Portugal is diverging, with a 2.5% decrease in air capacity for the fourth quarter.

This reduction contrasts with Greece’s robust expansion (+10.7%) and steady growth in Spain and Italy, whose increased off-season connections largely stem from low-cost carriers.

Analysts at Data Appeal Mabrian highlight that lasting success in attracting year-round tourism relies on aligning three factors: pricing benefits, positive climate perception, and distinctive experiences.

Price is a strong draw, with winter 2026 hotel rates expected to drop notably compared to summer—about 24% in 3- and 4-star hotels and nearly a third in 5-star properties. The mild climate is a compelling advantage for young adults, seniors, and digital nomads, with Portugal enjoying an additional favourable climate window in spring.

The report concludes that gastronomy, nature tourism, cultural routes, and active sports are inherently less seasonal and highly flexible. The main engine of economic growth in colder months is urban cultural programming, with events becoming true demand magnets. More than half of events and roughly 73% of total attendance occur outside peak months, demonstrating that the region’s tourism future depends on diversifying the calendar and emphasising content beyond traditional beach options.