I do not believe that Portugal is facing a repeat of the crisis of just over a decade ago. But I also believe that the periods of greatest confidence are precisely those in which we must maintain greater prudence.

The indebtedness of construction and real estate companies once again exceeded 58 billion euros, approaching, in absolute value, the levels of 2013. The comparison may be frightening, but it would be wrong to ignore the huge differences between the two moments. At the time, this debt represented almost 35% of Portuguese GDP. Today it represents about 19%. Companies are more capitalised, the sector has become more professional, and financial autonomy has improved significantly. So it is important to say it clearly: we are not in 2013 again.

The increase in credit also has a logical explanation. Portugal needs to build more housing and building requires capital. Buying land, developing projects, rehabilitating buildings and creating new infrastructure depend on financing. We should not, therefore, look at the whole debt as a problem. There is a huge difference between financing productive investment and sustaining projects that are overly dependent on continuously rising prices.

This is where prudence comes in. Real estate continues to be exposed to interest rates, construction costs, economic developments, taxation and political decisions. A seemingly solid project can take several years to completion, during which time conditions can change profoundly.

The same reflection applies to housing credit. I understand those who defend greater ease of financing to help families buy a house. But facilitating credit does not mean creating housing. If we increase purchasing capacity without increasing supply, we can simply put more money into competing for the same properties and contribute to a new rise in prices.

A family that commits almost half of its monthly income to the mortgage payment is also more vulnerable to a rise in interest, a loss of income or an unexpected expense. Protecting access to housing is essential, but so is protecting families from over-indebtedness.

My view of the Portuguese market remains positive. We need investment, credit, national and foreign capital and companies capable of building the houses that are missing. But we also need responsible financing, sound promoters and protected buyers.

Credit growth should not scare us when it accompanies productive investment and increased supply. But history teaches us that the greatest risks often begin when we stop believing that there are risks.

Portuguese real estate is stronger, more professional and more prepared today than it was a decade ago. The best way to stay strong is not to lose your memory and, above all, not to confuse confidence with overconfidence.