Portugal to see temperatures drop as rain approaches

Portugal is set to a see a change in the weather this week, with temperatures expected to fall and rain potentially returning to much of the country over the weekend of 7 and 8 November.

By Kam Heskin, in News · 02 Nov 2026, 12:03 · 0 Comments

After a relatively warm and dry start to the month, the latest forecasts suggest that the settled conditions could give way to a more unsettled Atlantic weather pattern.

According to meteorologist Alfredo Graça of Meteored Portugal, projections from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicate a gradual drop in temperatures from 3 November, followed by the possibility of more widespread rainfall over the weekend.

However, the timing and extent of the rain remain uncertain, with forecasters warning that changes in the position of an approaching Atlantic depression could significantly alter the outlook.

Temperatures to fall from 3 November

Monday, 2 November, is expected to remain relatively mild, with daytime highs ranging from 18°C to 26°C across much of mainland Portugal.

Temperatures should begin to decline on 3 and 4 November, when maximum values are forecast to fall to between 15°C and 23°C.

The change is linked to a powerful area of high pressure developing over the British Isles, with atmospheric pressure potentially exceeding 1040 hectopascals.

This weather system is expected to influence the movement of colder continental air across Europe.

Although parts of the continent could experience a more substantial drop in temperatures, Portugal is unlikely to see the same intensity of cold.

Its geographical position means that the air mass will have moderated considerably before reaching the country.

Overnight temperatures could reach freezing

The most noticeable cold conditions are expected in inland areas of northern and central Portugal.

Between 2 and 4 November, overnight temperatures in these regions could fall to between 0°C and 8°C, with the possibility of localised frost.

Elsewhere, minimum temperatures are expected to remain considerably higher, generally between 10°C and 15°C during the first part of the week.

From 5 November, overnight conditions could become slightly milder in inland and mountainous areas, with minimum temperatures rising to between 6°C and 12°C.

In the Algarve, nights are expected to remain comparatively mild, with temperatures generally ranging from 12°C to 15°C.

Daytime highs on 5 and 6 November, should range between 15°C and 22°C across most of mainland Portugal.

The northeast of Trás-os-Montes and Beira Alta could experience cooler afternoons, with maximum temperatures between 13°C and 18°C.

Will rain return this weekend?

The more significant change could arrive on Saturday, 7 November, and continue into Sunday.

Forecast models indicate that a large area of low pressure over the Atlantic, near the Azores, may influence conditions across mainland Portugal.

As the system develops, increasing cloud cover and the arrival of rain containing weather fronts could bring an end to the predominantly dry conditions experienced at the beginning of November.

Some light, scattered drizzle is also possible south of the Mondego River on Thursday and Friday.

However, forecasters are not yet able to identify which regions are most likely to receive the heaviest rainfall.

The precise position and movement of the Atlantic depression will determine whether rain reaches Portugal earlier or later than currently anticipated.

Meteored has emphasised that the forecast for the weekend remains subject to considerable uncertainty.

What about the Algarve?

While northern and central inland areas could experience freezing overnight temperatures, the Algarve is expected to remain considerably milder.

Minimum temperatures of approximately 12°C to 15°C are forecast later in the week, although cloud cover may increase as the Atlantic weather pattern develops.

The possibility of rain over the weekend extends to southern Portugal, but there is not yet enough certainty to predict how much precipitation the Algarve will receive.

The forecast also illustrates the differences between Portugal’s coastal and inland climates.

Areas close to the Atlantic generally experience less pronounced overnight cooling than inland valleys and elevated regions, where clear skies and light winds can allow temperatures to fall rapidly.

Portugal avoids Europe’s coldest conditions

Despite the expected cooling, Portugal is forecast to escape the more severe cold associated with the continental air mass moving across parts of Europe.

ECMWF weekly projections suggest that northern Portugal could experience temperatures approximately 1°C to 3°C below the seasonal average during the first week of November.

Other regions are expected to remain closer to typical early-November conditions.

For now, the main development to watch is the potential return of rain on 7 and 8 November.

With several days remaining before the weekend, updated forecasts will be important in determining which regions are most likely to experience rainfall and whether the change in weather arrives as currently projected.