I recently read in Jornal de Negócios a conversation with Burkhard Varnholt, senior financial markets consultant at UBS Global Wealth, in which he states that Portugal is currently the most successful economy in Europe and that it should continue to outperform the average next year. More than the praise, it is interesting to understand the reasons that lead an international observer of the markets to look at the Portuguese economy in this way.
Varnholt speaks of a virtuous circle. He highlights the growth of national and foreign investment, tourism, the evolution of real estate and the stock market, structural reforms, budget surpluses and the reduction of public debt. He also recalls that the Portuguese stock market has appreciated by around 20% in the last twelve months, despite the small size of our capital market. His conclusion is particularly strong: he does not identify, at this moment, reasons to believe that this dynamic is temporary.
Of course, Portugal continues to have major structural problems. Productivity remains low, housing has become unaffordable for many families, wages remain far from other European economies, and enormous difficulties persist in bureaucracy, licensing, and the state's ability to execute. Recognising what is going well does not mean ignoring what remains unresolved. On the contrary, it will perhaps allow us to better understand the opportunity before us.
I have often written about investment, energy, real estate, technology, data centres, submarine cables and Portugal's privileged geographical position. In many international contacts I find today a curiosity and confidence in our country that, curiously, I do not always find within Portugal. Perhaps we should pay more attention to this contrast.
There is yet another interesting dimension to the interview. Varnholt believes that the world can learn from Portugal. A country that went through a serious financial crisis was forced to reform itself and is now emerging in a more solid position, while some of Europe's largest economies are struggling to carry out reforms that they have been able to postpone for years.
Unfortunately, this is precisely the economic news that often goes almost unnoticed. The Portuguese public debate remains too focused on the same issues, the same controversies and, inevitably, on football. This is legitimate, but a society also needs to know what is structurally changing its economy.
Portugal has not suddenly become a country without problems. But perhaps it is becoming a country with many more opportunities than we ourselves recognise. If investors, entrepreneurs and international analysts start to look at Portugal in a different way, it would be useful for us to also start looking at ourselves with greater ambition. Not to celebrate success in advance, but not to waste an opportunity that others have already begun to identify.










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