Some blame speculation, others the lack of supply, tourism, foreign investors or interest rates. All these factors influence the market, but none explains, by itself, the dimension of the problem. Perhaps because housing has never really been the central problem: it is rather the mirror of an economy that continues to struggle to transform growth into prosperity.

In recent years, Portugal has accumulated positive signs. We have improved in European innovation indicators, young Portuguese people reveal digital skills above the European Union average, technological investment grows, and projects related to data centres, artificial intelligence and renewable energies are emerging. We have never been better positioned to participate in the new digital economy. Despite this, wages continue to grow slowly, productivity remains below the European average, and the purchasing power of households remains far from that of more developed economies.

This is where housing comes into the discussion. For too long we have asked why houses are expensive. Perhaps we should ask why incomes remain low. A house is not expensive or cheap in an absolute way; it is expensive or cheap depending on the economic capacity of those who want to buy it. Even in a more balanced market, with prices stabilising in several regions, more selective buyers and longer sales times, the effort rate of families remains high. The problem of affordability does not disappear when the market slows down, because the essential variable remains almost unchanged: the financial capacity of families.

The real debate should therefore focus on productivity. Portugal continues to produce less wealth per worker than many European partners, and this is inevitably reflected in wages. Ireland is a clear example: just over three decades ago it had levels of development close to those of the Portuguese; today it is one of the most productive economies in Europe, attracts technological investment with high added value and pays talent much better. It was not housing that transformed Ireland. It was productivity.

In Portugal, we are often stuck in a work environment where productivity, merit and remuneration do not always go together. Whenever there is talk of greater labour flexibility, the debate quickly becomes ideological. But flexibility does not mean the absence of rights; It means creating conditions for companies to reward those who create more value and for workers, especially the youngest and most qualified, to see their performance reflected in professional and salary progression. As long as seniority outweighs merit, we will continue to lose talent, limit the competitiveness of companies and hinder wealth creation.

Portugal naturally needs to build more housing and increase supply. But it would be a mistake to believe that we will solve the housing crisis without first addressing the productivity crisis. Because, deep down, houses do not just tell the story of the real estate market. They tell, above all, the history of the Portuguese economy.