Figures released by the National Association of Family Health Units (USF-AN) estimate that 682 family doctors could retire between 2026 and 2029.

The largest wave is expected this year, when 503 doctors are eligible to retire. A further 179 retirements are forecast over the following three years.

At the same time, 1,446 doctors currently in the first two years of specialist training could qualify as family doctors by 2029.

On the surface, that looks comfortably sufficient to replace those leaving. But Portugal is starting from a considerable deficit.

USF-AN estimates that another 588 family doctors would be needed today to provide a doctor to everyone registered with the National Health Service (SNS).

When doctors who are temporarily unable to practise, including those on sick leave or working in other roles, are taken into account, the estimated shortage rises to 980.

The association averages the two figures, putting the current shortage at about 785 family doctors.

Add the 682 expected retirements and Portugal would need around 1,467 additional family doctors by 2029.

That is remarkably close to the 1,446 doctors currently in training.

Training doctors is only part of the answer

The figures suggest Portugal could, in theory, have enough newly qualified family doctors to cover both the current shortage and expected retirements.

But that depends on those doctors completing their training and, crucially, remaining available to work within the SNS.

Family doctors could also be brought back into the public system. USF-AN estimates that around 1,000 are currently working outside the SNS, while several hundred Portuguese family doctors are believed to be working abroad.

The association argues that attracting some of those doctors back could provide another route to filling vacancies.

The problem is not limited to doctors.

USF-AN estimates that Portugal is also short of about 280 family nurses and 270 clinical secretaries, both of whom work alongside family doctors in primary healthcare.

The association says complete teams are essential if Portugal is to improve access to primary care rather than simply increase the number of doctors on paper.

For patients who have spent years waiting to be assigned a family doctor, the numbers offer some reason for optimism.

Portugal is training almost enough new family doctors to cover both its estimated existing shortage and those expected to retire by 2029. The bigger challenge will be making sure enough of them actually end up working where the SNS needs them.

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