We talk about the technological race between the United States, China and Europe as if everything depended only on the ability to innovate. But there is a reality that is much less visible and, perhaps for this reason, much more important. None of these technologies exists without critical raw materials.

Research recently released by researchers from NOVA FCT warns precisely of this problem: Europe remains highly dependent on imported raw materials to produce many of the advanced materials that support the digital economy and the energy transition. More importantly, the researchers argue that the solution is not only to exploit new resources, but also to develop alternative materials that reduce this dependence and strengthen European technological autonomy. This is a reflection that deserves much more attention than it usually receives.

In recent months, I have written several times about the major investments that are coming to Portugal. Data centres, artificial intelligence, green hydrogen, submarine cables, advanced industry and space technologies are now part of the country's new economic narrative. But there is one question we rarely ask.

Where do the materials that make all this possible come from?

Without rare earths, lithium, graphite, cobalt, or other strategic materials, there are no batteries, wind turbines, semiconductors, satellites, or artificial intelligence servers. And while Europe remains dependent on supply chains concentrated in a few countries, it will also remain vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, trade constraints or supply disruptions.

Perhaps that's why the next big economic race isn't just for artificial intelligence. It will also be for the ability to guarantee access to the materials that feed this intelligence.

Portugal may have a relevant opportunity here. Not only for its mineral resources, but above all for its scientific capacity, universities, research centres, and the possibility of participating in the development of new materials and new technological solutions. Innovation will no longer be only in the final product. It will also be in how we replace critical raw materials, recycle materials, and reduce strategic dependencies. This is a quiet but profound change.

For many years, competitiveness was measured by the cost of energy or labour. Today it is also beginning to be measured by the ability to guarantee access to strategic resources and transform scientific knowledge into economic advantage.

Perhaps this is one of those news stories that does not occupy the front pages because it does not talk about crises or records.

But it could be one of the most important in the coming years. Because the race of the twenty-first century will not be won only by those who develop the best technology, and it will be won by those who can secure the materials that make it possible.