In the municipalities of Sintra, Seixal, Barreiro, Moita and Setúbal, the variation in the median value per square meter of houses sold exceeded 200% in the period under analysis.

This is the conclusion of the study "Housing in Portugal: determinants of supply and dynamics of prices and rents", published in the June Economic Bulletin released by the Bank of Portugal.

Median rental values

The median rental value per square meter more than doubled in 23 municipalities (out of a total of 184 for which information is available), with the municipalities of Grândola, Sines, and Moita standing out, with variations exceeding 125% in the period between 2017 and 2024 (the last year for which the INE [National Institute of Statistics] released rental values).

According to the study, the real estate increase was more pronounced in municipalities with lower purchase prices relative to prevailing rents, with demand shifting "to relatively more accessible municipalities" within the metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Porto.

Municipalities in the Algarve

In comparison, the municipalities of Espírito Santo, "which already stood out with price-rent indices higher than the national average ― heavily influenced by demand from non-residents," recorded relatively smaller variations in the period considered.

The study also concludes that in Portugal, consumer expectations regarding house price behaviour over the next 12 months "show a growing trend and persistently higher levels than in the euro area."

Price increase expectation

Between January and March 2026, the expectation was for an average increase in housing prices of 7% in Portugal and 3.7% in the euro area, with Portugal showing "a widespread perception that the current moment is favourable for investment" and for applying savings to the housing market.

The authors of the study observe the existence of "high heterogeneity in the expectations of national consumers, with young people (18–34 years old) anticipating an increase of 4%, on average, and consumers in the 55–70 age group predicting growth of 6.3%.

"This difference may be associated with the fact that older generations, with a longer history of observing prices and economic cycles in the real estate market, tend to anchor their expectations in inflationary phenomena already experienced," says the document.

Regional level

At the regional level, the highest expectations are concentrated in the North region (6.8%) and the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (6.6%), while lower values ​​are observed in Alentejo and Algarve (3.7% in both).

Despite strong price growth, the Bank of Portugal study reveals that the share of bank credit in home transactions has remained below 60% over the last few years, with the remainder financed by home equity.

Loan growth

However, loan growth has been stronger since the beginning of 2024, coinciding with the fall in interest rates and also with "the state guarantee scheme" created for young people.

The authors of the study - Nuno Alves, João Amador, Beatriz Amorim, João Bonito Gomes, Cristina Manteu, António Santos and Carlos Santos - also point out limitations to statistics on the housing market, considering them "insufficient" to assess "the quantities demanded and offered for each price", the "evolution of family preferences", the "cost structure associated with housing construction" and the "competitive conditions in the sector".